การวิเคราะห์ความยั่งยืนของแม่น้ำเจ้าพระยาตอนล่างโดยใช้พลวัตระบบ
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Abstract
Rujira Chaysiri and Jitlakha Sukruay
รับบทความ: 13 เมษายน 2563; แก้ไขบทความ: 29 กันยายน 2563; ยอมรับตีพิมพ์: 26 ตุลาคม 2563; ตีพิมพ์ออนไลน์: 19 พฤษภาคม 2564
บทคัดย่อ
ปัญหาคุณภาพน้ำในแม่น้ำเจ้าพระยาได้รับการบันทึกไว้ในวรรณกรรมจำนวนมาก รวมถึงรัฐบาลได้ออกกฎและมาตรการต่าง ๆ เพื่อลดปัญหาสิ่งแวดล้อมในแม่น้ำ อย่างไรก็ตามปัญหาเหล่านี้ยังคงมีอยู่ ในงานวิจัยนี้คณะผู้วิจัยสร้างแบบจำลองพลวัตระบบที่เรียกว่า เจ้าพีเอสดี (ChaoPSD) ซึ่งเป็นแบบจำลองที่ประกอบไปด้วยสามระบบย่อย ได้แก่ ครัวเรือน อุตสาหกรรม และเกษตรกรรม แบบจำลองติดตามปริมาณไนโตรเจนของแม่น้ำเจ้าพระยาตอนล่างเมื่อเวลาผ่านไป หลังจากทดสอบแบบจำลองแล้ว แบบจำลองพลวัตระบบนำมาใช้เพื่อเป็นเครื่องมือสำหรับการเพิ่มความเข้าใจในความ สัมพันธ์ระหว่างพฤติกรรมของผู้ใช้แม่น้ำและสภาพคุณภาพน้ำในแม่น้ำ ผลของการจำลองแสดงให้เห็นว่ามีการเพิ่มขึ้นของปริมาณไนโตรเจนในแม่น้ำเจ้าพระยาตั้งแต่ปี 2561 ถึงปี 2566 คณะผู้วิจัยแนะนำว่าการควบคุมการปล่อยไนโตรเจนลงในน้ำซึ่งสามารถทำได้โดยการเพิ่มประสิทธิภาพของการบำบัดน้ำเสียและการเพิ่มความตระหนักรู้ของผู้ใช้แม่น้ำ มีส่วนสำคัญต่อความยั่งยืนทางสิ่งแวดล้อมของแม่น้ำเจ้าพระยา
คำสำคัญ: พลวัตระบบ มลภาวะทางน้ำ แม่น้ำเจ้าพระยา ไนโตรเจน การจัดการน้ำ
Abstract
Water quality issues in the Chao Phraya river have been well–documented in the literature. The government has enforced rules and regulations to mitigate the environmental problems in the river. However, problems still exist. In this research, we constructed a system dynamics (SD) model, called ChaoPSD. The proposed model included three subsystems: (1) household, (2) industry, and (3) agriculture. This model tracked the nitrogen load in the lower Chao Phraya river over time. After the model validation, ChaoPSD was used as a tool for a better comprehension of the interrelationships among the actions of users and the health of the river. The simulation results showed that there will be an increasing amount of nitrogen in the Chao Phraya river from 2018 to 2023. We suggest that controlling the discharged nitrogen by increasing the efficiency of wastewater treatment and increasing people’s awareness are essential for environmental sustainability in the Chao Phraya river.
Keywords: System dynamics, Water pollution, Chao Phraya river, Nitrogen, Water management
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